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06/12/2003 Archived Entry: "Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA: Houston, Do We Have a Problem?"

Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA: Houston, Do We Have a Problem? According to NASA/JPL NEO PROGRAM, 1950 DA may be more than a casual close encounter. Their discussion starts:

Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA was discovered on 23 February 1950. It was observed for 17 days and then faded from view for half a century. Then, an object discovered on 31 December 2000 (New Year's Eve) was recognized as being the long-lost 1950 DA.

Radar observations were made at Goldstone and Arecibo on 3-7 March 2001, during the asteroid's 7.8 million km approach to the Earth (a distance 21 times larger than that separating the Earth and Moon). Radar echoes revealed a slightly asymmetrical spheroid with a mean diameter of 1.1 km. Optical observations showed the asteroid rotated once every 2.1 hours, the second fastest spin rate ever observed for an asteroid its size.

When high-precision radar meaurements were included in a new orbit solution, a potentially very close approach to the Earth was detected on March 16, 2880. Analysis performed by Giorgini et al and reported in the April 5, 2002 edition of the journal Science ("Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter With Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction") determined the impact probability as being at most 1 in 300 and probably even more remote, based on what is known about the asteroid so far. At its greatest, this could represent a risk 50% greater than that of the average background hazard due to all other asteroids from the present era through 2880, as defined by the Palermo Technical Scale (PTS value = +0.17). 1950 DA is the only known asteroid whose hazard could be above the background level.

Scientific American's note on this states "The most recent opportunity to track the asteroid's journey will not be the last: 1950 DA will be observable again in 2032 and several times thereafter. But even those sightings may not suffice."

What do we learn from this?

1. This is pretty serious.
2. We lost track of this asteroid for 50 years, and will do so periodically
3. 2880 is not the far off.
4. Serious resources and talent to address this issue must come into being soon. Speeches, committees, conferences, panels, token programs are not enough.
5. We don't want a replay of the Dinosaur story ...
6. It really is time to get the lost souls of Homo Sapiens Sapiens beyond the infantile homicidal terrorist phase; there's real work to be done. The resources and talent being diverted to deal with sick minds (with hands and fingers on bad buttons) are needed to deal with really serious issues.

More from recent media and scientific news (June 2003) (via AsteroideWatch) reveals the following:

From astronomy.com:
Although the probability is low, if an asteroid collides with Earth in the relatively near future it would likely land in one of our oceans, which cover 70 percent of the planet's surface. On March 16, 2880, asteroid 1950 DA will pass near Earth, possibly close enough to crash into the Atlantic Ocean. According to two researchers, this 38,000 mile-per-hour (61,000-kilometer-per-hour) impact would create enormous tsunami waves as high as 400 feet (120 meters) that would cover the U.S. Atlantic coast.

In the June issue of the Geophysical Journal International, Steven Ward and Erik Asphaug, both of the University of California at Santa Cruz, report their findings concerning the potential catastrophic impact. From this research, the duo developed a computer simulation to investigate the effects an asteroid the size of 1950 DA (about two-thirds of a mile or one kilometer across) landing in the Atlantic about 360 miles (580 km) from the east coast of the United States ..... Within two hours of the impact, 400-foot tsunami waves would slam onto the shore from Cape Cod, Massachusetts, to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. A few hours later, 200-foot waves would reach the rest of the East Coast and the Caribbean. Eight hours after the impact, western Europe would see waves measuring 30 to 50 feet (9 to 15 meters) in height.

other sources

SPACEREF: An Asteroid Impact in 2880: Giant Waves and Coastal Devastation.

Detailed Bibliography on Asteroids is located as AsteroidWatch.NET